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Tuesday, 24 July 2012

Bar a miracle, Bandt can't win seat

The Greens have suffered a serious blow after failing to win the State seat of Melbourne. Inner-city Melbourne is no doubt the most left-wing area in Australia, and the only Federal Greens MP, Adam Bandt currently represents Melbourne.
But fortunately, Greens candidate for the state by-election triggered by the resignation of Labor MP Bronwyn Pike, Cathy Oke was defeated by Labor candidate Jennifer Kanis. Notably, no Liberal candidate ran for the seat and turnout is at a record low of 67%. This result is notably bad news for Mr Bandt. He was elected at the last federal election on the back of Liberal preferences. He received 36.17% of the vote, compared with Labor's 38.09%. As Victorian Labor secretary Noah Carroll said ''The Greens Party won't concede they've lost Melbourne, they won't concede that by voting with Tony Abbott on asylum-seekers that their view of 'humanitarianism' is costing lives, and they won't concede that Adam Bandt won his seat off the back of Liberal preferences''

But the Greens have clearly panicked. In Ms Oke's concession she claimed '...if the same swings are repeated in the next federal election, we will retain the federal seat of Melbourne''. This is incorrect. Do the maths. At the Victorian state election in 2010, the Greens had a swing towards them of 4.5%, with the Libs running. At the by-election, without the Liberals running, the Greens had a swing towards them of roughly 4.6%. So, let's say Labor has a swing against it of around 6% (I'd think a generous figure, national polling has a 6% swing). Keep in mind when Bandt won his seat, Labor suffered a huge swing of 11.4%. A swing of 6% from Labor to the Greens would reduce Labor's primary vote to 32.09%. Bandt's primary vote would increase to 42.17%. The Liberals received 21.00% of the vote in 2010. This is likely to increase. Even staying the same, with Liberal and other candidate (Sex Party & Family First both preferences Labor this by-election) preferences flowing strongly to Labor, Labor should win the seat.

And a good thing too. These elitist, uncompromising, patronising eco-fascists have no place in modern Australian politics.