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Saturday, 21 July 2012

Melbourne state by-election results

  • At 9:07 with 45.16% of the vote counted, the Greens lead Labor 38.20% to 31.94% on primaries.
  • Other candidates with a high vote: Fiona Patten of the Sex Party on 7.27%, David Noelte, Independent Liberal on 5.46%, Stephen Mayne on 4.3% and Berhan Ahmed on 4.01
  • On a 2PP basis, Labor is just holding the seat with the narrowest of margins on 50.37% to 49.63%
  • This is only the second time the Greens have ever led on primaries - seats they have won such as Cunningham, Balmain, and Melbourne (federal) have all been on preferences
  • If Labor holds the seat, that is very bad news for the Greens. Even without the Liberals and with left-wing candidates such as Socialists and Anarchists standing, they fail to win the most left-wing seat in Australia
  • At 10:18, Labor has increased its lead slightly with just over 50% of the vote counted. Labor 50.75% v Greens 49.25
  • Very substantial informal vote of 9.11%

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